Fukushima Radiation and Fallout Projections

20 - 26 November 2011


Note: real values probably one notch higher in the scale

From Cesium From Fukushima Fell All Over Japan by Hiroshi Ishizuka, 26 Nov 2011. In the extract of the article Analysis Of Japanese Government Radiation Spread Report,, 29 Nov 2011 provided below, the author explains why each of the classifications above are probably too low and should be moved to the next higher level.


North America

Fukushima Day 260 "Nuclear Volcanoes" by Web bots + TEPCO: "fallout landowner responsibility" (14:55) uploaded by connectingdots1 on Nov 25, 2011


2011-11-20 Where are the Superheroes?,
Yesterday I posted a link for Fukushima Diary's translation of comments made by the engineer of reactor #3 at Fukushima.
Enenews also ran the story and used Babblefish to translate his comments.
A comment made by IReallyAmARocketScientist at Enenews was instructive:
"More precisely, I think what can be expected is a blend of hydrovolcanic and phreatomagmatic eruption. phreatomagmatic eruptions are characterized by violent steam explosions that lasts as long as ground water can come into contact with magma, which, in this case, is/are the corium(s). With the highly radioactive steam venting from surface fissures at Fukushima, it seems that we are already beginning the run up to such an explosion."
I hope that the perceived lack of collaborative action on Fukushima by the world's nuclear engineers and physicists is simply an illusion and that as I write an international team of experts is working on a solution.
Where are the superheroes?
2011-11-21 Fukushima Nuclear Chain Reaction or "Prompt Criticality" Possible?,
Enenews has a 3 minute clip from Dr. Helen Caldicott's interview with Dr. Ian Fairlie on the possibility of prompt criticality at Fukushima.
Listen to the entire interview here:
Prompt criticality could result in a nuclear explosion. (Read about the different forms of criticality here:
We, the general public, don't know that this will happen at Fukushima
Tepco may know the likelihood, but they are not sharing that information with the people
We do know that unit 1 has massive radiation spikes, but we don't know if there is enough fuel pooled tightly enough to create an unabated nuclear chain reaction
Let us hope that will not happen.
But what about constant on and then off again fissioning?
What are the consequences for us if that continues unabated (and by us I mean everyone in its pathways)?????
I find it alarming that there is such quiet from environmental groups. Why aren't they explaining the situation to their publics? Is it because their scientists see no worry?
I don't think so. If that was the case, scientists would be speaking publicly about the levels of risk.
Why? Is it because people are afraid to speak out? If so, why? Do they fear reprisals?
It is strange and rather scary.
2011-11-22 Fukushima: “China Syndrome Is Inevitable” … “Huge Steam Explosions”, “Massive Hydrovolcanic Explosion” or a “Nuclear Bomb-Type Explosion” May Occur,
2011-11-22 ABC: Gov’t says nearly one-tenth of Japan has been contaminated by radiation from Fukushima by Energy News Staff
"Nearly a tenth of Japan contaminated, ABC Australia by Mark Willacy, 22 Nov 2011:
Japan’s Science Ministry says nearly 10 per cent of the country’s land has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant. [...]
The Japanese Government says some of the radioactive material fell with rain and snow, leaving the affected areas with accumulations of more than 10,000 becquerels of caesium per square metre."
2011-11-23 Fukushima worker confesses “There is nothing left that we could do” posted by Mochizuki, [Editor'sNote: The reader comments have some interesting ideas about what can be done]
2011-11-24 Radiation in Japan: Tokyo Will Burn Miyagi's Disaster (and Radioactive) Debris in Incineration Plants in 23 Special Wards ["Tokyo To Burn Another 100,000 Tons Radioactive Debris" from], [Editor's Note: The Japanese continue to wage a form of dirty nuclear war against themselves and North America by reintroducing radioactive material into the atmosphere through burning].
2011-11-25 50 locations exceeded mandatory decontamination limit in Arakawaku [Tokyo],
Having measured 6.46 micro Sv/h at Shioiri elementary school in Arakawaku Tokyo, the ward government measured all the elementary schools, kindergarten, and nursery schools.
As a result, 50 of 82 locations turned out to be contaminated worse than 0.23 micro Sv/h, which is the “decontamination limit”.
Details are:

* 10 kindergarten
* 13 nursery school
* 16 elementary school
* 10 junior highschool
* 1 Korean school

6 of elementary schools and junior schools were contaminated worse than 1.0 micro Sv/h.
Arakawa ward government banned going into those areas and started decontamination, such as high-pressure washing, changing the soil or cover the ground with concrete.
However, some people criticizes decontamination is useless because high-pressure washing only scatters around radioactive particles, and the water is contaminated itself etc..
2011-11-25 Videos From Japan With English Subtitles,
Brought to us by Tokyo Brown Tabby
Thank you!
2011-11-25 50 locations exceeded mandatory decontamination limit in Arakawaku [Tokyo],
Having measured 6.46 micro Sv/h at Shioiri elementary school in Arakawaku Tokyo, the ward government measured all the elementary schools, kindergarten, and nursery schools.
As a result, 50 of 82 locations turned out to be contaminated worse than 0.23 micro Sv/h, which is the “decontamination limit”.
2011-11-25 News from Japan,
"Japan Today Radioactive strontium found in 3 locations in Tokyo
"A citizens’ group has discovered radioactive strontium in soil in three locations in Tokyo, peaking at 51 becquerels per kilogram.
"The group took measurements throughout Tokyo and Yokohama, and found radioactive mud in several locations, Sankei Shimbun reported Friday. In one case, a soil sample weighing one kilogram was found to be emitting 51 becquerels."
Also,Fukushima governor wants free medical care for young residents
"Fukushima Gov Yuhei Sato on Thursday asked the central government to provide free medical care for anyone aged 18 or younger, who have suffered health problems due to the nuclear crisis."
2011-11-25 Radiation in Japan: Southern Miyagi's Disaster Debris May Be Too Radioactive [Miyagi Disaster Debris Too Radioactive To Burn In Tokyo? Nah -],
"After the Tokyo Metropolitan government merrily signed the agreement with Miyagi Prefecture to accept radioactive disaster debris and burn it in regular incinerators operated by municipal governments all over Tokyo (see my post yesterday), Miyagi Prefecture announces that some of the Miyagi disaster debris may be too radioactive when burned.
So? Mix and burn. Or just send it to Governor Ishihara. He won't care, even if the residents may. He will be happy to receive the highly radioactive ashes from Miyagi and bury them anyway in Tokyo Bay. Mix and bury.
From Jiji Tsushin (11/25/2011; the link won't last):"
2011-11-25 (for this day, the day of the report) Analysis Of Japanese Government Radiation Spread Report,, 29 Nov 2011
Since the Japanese government policy remains to downplay the risk, after censoring radiation reports in the news and in the blogosphere, data should be taken with a grain of salt. Last week, the Japanese government has turned its back on the company it had contracted to monitor radiation in parks and school playgrounds around Fukushima, after it suddenly discovered that the accuracy of the Geiger counters it had ordered was substandard (Cf. Mainichi Shimbun news article and comment in Geiger Counter Case Study: Inspector Alert in SurvivalJapan). MEXT data for all regions but Fukushima falsely reported radiation levels close to natural background radiation for months so that I only trust citizens reports such as Safecast. On the Japanese government radiation map below, it is a safe bet to assign to each concentration the level range above each reported, i.e. for 0-10.000 Becquerel/sq.m, the real value is probably between 10.000 and 30.000 Becquerel/sq.m. As for the methodology, only one station per prefecture was used to measure data. The Japanese government and affiliated organizations reportedly used Geiger counters conveniently located to show the least radiation, as in the current case of Tokyo University, which use only their one station with lower readings and switched off the other one which measures higher levels of radioactivity. Japan is not the only country to set their radioactivity monitoring stations at their convenience, this is common practice as shown in France by CRIIRAD with Areva (ex-COGEMA) company for instance, in the context of nationwide contamination from closed uranium mines. Read for instance “Decommissioning Projects – France” on Wise-Uranium with links or directly the English report by Head of CRIIRAD Bruno Chareyron, “Radiological hazards from uranium mining”, available for download in PDF format. CRIIRAD stands for Commission de Recherche et d’Information Indépendantes sur la RADioactivité / Commission for Independent Research and Information about RADiation and Bruno Chareyron was invited in Fukushima.
If absolute figures are probably fudged, relative concentrations of radiation in cities are likely to be trustful (although it says nothing about other cities in each prefecture). Hereafter is a ranking based on the news article, with lowest concentration rounded up to 1 Bq/sq.m for Uto, Kumamoto Prefecture, as the reported value is unrealistically small (0.378 Bq/sq.m) and for the sake of having a non-null integer multiplier. It should be noted that the apparent precision of figures is misleading and I kept the 2 most significant figures for this short ranking:
Kumamoto (Kyushu) : 1
Osaka : 20
Tokyo : 20,000
Yamagata (Fukushima and Miyagi neighbor by the Sea of Japan) : 20,000
Ibaraki (northern neighbor of Tokyo by the Ocean Pacific) : 40,000
In other words, radiation is 10 times lower in Kyushu compared to Kansai (suspiciously, in spite of the Genkai nuclear incident, Cf. Nuclear Incident in Kyushu November Update on SurvivalJapan). Kansai is itself a 1000 times less irradiated than Tokyo. This seems about right and there is of course a gradient between these regions. Indeed, before information black-out was enforced, a Japanese green tea grower in Shizuoka (further south from Mount Fuji, about 150 km / 100 miles south-west of Tokyo) reported high level of radioactivity (read for instance the New York Post article about it). In order to get 680 Bq/kg in dried tea leaves, as was reported there in Honyama area, the soil needs to be pretty contaminated and hence also the air, from which radioactive fall-out precipitates (therefore, other food products from this wider area are contaminated as well)...
2011-11-26 Asahi: Gov’t survey shows Fukushima fallout has spread everywhere in Japan — Now confirmed 1,700 km away at Okinawa, by ENENEWS Staff
"Cesium from Fukushima plant fell all over Japan, AJW by The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 26, 2011:
Radioactive substances from the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant have now been confirmed in all prefectures, including Uruma, Okinawa Prefecture, about 1,700 kilometers from the plant, according to the science ministry.
The ministry said it concluded the radioactive substances came from the stricken nuclear plant because, in all cases, they contained cesium-134, which has short half-life of two years. [...]
But the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology’s survey results released on Nov. 25 showed that fallout from the Fukushima plant has spread across Japan. [...]
The ministry also said Nov. 25 that it will conduct aerial measurements of cesium accumulations in soil in regions outside the 22 prefectures starting next year. That is because small amounts of cesium have been detected in dust deposits in Hokkaido and western Japan.
Survey details:
* Included the cumulative densities of radioactive substances in dust that fell into receptacles from March – June.
* No figures were available for Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures, where
the measurement equipment is said to have been not operating.
* Only one measurement station was used for each of the other 45 prefectures.
More to come…"
2011-11-26 Asahi: "Cesium levels hit tens of billions of becquerels at river mouth,"
"Researchers have sounded the alarm over river water containing cesium levels at tens of billions of becquerels a day flowing into the sea near Fukushima Prefecture, site of the crippled nuclear power plant."

North America

2011-11-24 Radiation in Japan: Tokyo Will Burn Miyagi's Disaster (and Radioactive) Debris in Incineration Plants in 23 Special Wards ["Tokyo To Burn Another 100,000 Tons Radioactive Debris" from],, reader comment:

Mauibrad said...
This radioactive incineration is a problem for the whole Northern Hemisphere, and quite likely an international crime of pollution. There has to be a better way of dealing with this radioactive debris. Regardless, one or more of the affected nations needs to assert their legal rights on this soon.
November 24, 2011 6:41 PM
arevamirpal::laprimavera said...
Dead silence from the US government, US environmentalists. I guess they are OK with whatever Japan does or doesn't do.
November 24, 2011 6:55 PM
Mauibrad said...
You are right, American environmentalists like Jim Hansen and the major environmental lobby organizations are totally 'invested' into the false hope that nuclear is somehow "cleaner" than coal or oil. It is not. I was referring more to possible countries like Russia, China, maybe Canada, or some of the odd European countries to file charges in international court or at the UN over the atrocity of further irresponsible radioactive incineration and dispersion into the hemispheric atmosphere. I know at least Russia could do it.
November 24, 2011 7:06 PM
Yosaku said...
The US government probably doesn't complain because incineration is one of the main ways that we deal with radioactive waste in the US. The DOE's incinerator at Oak Ridge, TN, for instance, burned over 33 million tons of radioactive waste during its operating lifetime.
For an excellent, though dated, summary of the incineration of low level and mixed radioactive waste in the US, google "epa 'waste handling and operational issues'"--should be the first document that pops up. Here's an IAEA doc on incineration:
Now whether these particular Japanese incinerators are up to the task of removing radioactive contamination is another question, and deserves some additional research (which I will try to do!). There is no denying that Japanese incinerators used to be awful, with one result being that Japan had some of the highest dioxin emissions in the world. However, the country worked hard to upgrade their incinerators through the late 90s and 00s, and should be world class now (I hope!).
Anyway, I'll try to do some more research on this and get back to you.

2011-11-25 Radiation Burns From Rain in the US?,
2011-11-26 [for this rain day in St. Louis] 55 Times Greater Than Background Radiation In 11:30pm 11/26/11 Saint Louis Fallout, POTRBLOG Team, 27 Nov 2011
"It has been raining in Saint Louis since about 2pm; at 11:30pm the rain had let off enough for us to take a sample swipe off of the hood of our truck. That sample returned a reading of 55 times greater than background radiation.
Prior to August 2011 this would have qualified as one of the highest readings we ever had; but after the corium hit ground water in August, we have had readings over 276 times greater than background. The fallout has reduced over the last month and typically have had a floor of 20x background readings.
The increased reading from this sample MAY represent the leading edge of what was released from Fukushima as a result of the recent back to back magnitude 6 earthquakes. If that is the case, we suspect higher levels will follow in a few days."

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