Fukushima Radiation and Fallout Projections

4 - 10 December 2011




Safecast Publishes Kyoto Radiation Map, dated 4 Dec 2011. See discussion below.


North America


2011-12-04 Shocking Yomiuri Editorial: Not eating your veggies equal to 100-200 millisieverts“Unfounded radiation fears seem to be continuing to spread” by Enenews Admin [Editor's Note: the editorial makes inappropriate analogies, similar to comparisons to increased exposure from flying. The biggest danger does not come from external radiation, but from microscopic particles that get ingested or otherwised absorbed into the body and remain embedded in cells, permanently emitting low level radiation].
2011-12-04 Dozens of radioactive tires from Japan confiscated by Russians: “Emitting excess levels of gamma and beta rays” — “Unsafe to bring into Russia” by Enenews Admin
2011-12-04 Safecast Publishes Kyoto Radiation Map,
"Tokyo-based citizen radiation monitoring group Safecast published a map of radiation levels in Kyoto city. The map includes areas such as the Kyoto incinerator plant, where radioactive waste could be incinerated if Hosono got his way in spite of local opposition; Kyoto JR train station; popular tourist spots such as the park of the imperial palace; nearby farming village Ohara, etc. It was “safecast” by a bicyclist at 1 meter above ground level yesterday. To our knowledge, this is the first map in Japan made in the monitored land as Safecast understandably focus on radiation levels in the no man’s land...
...Levels are within 35 to 70 CPM (count per minute), i.e. between about 1 to 2 mS/year. Although these levels are twice as expected, they are harmless even for residents, therefore all the more for short-stay visitors. A screenshot of the map is reproduced below. [Editor's Note: The problem with this form of measurement is that it involves external radiation only and not nanoparticles inhaled, ingested, or otherwise absorbed inside the body].
2011-12-05 Radio: Just a matter of time before molten core reaches groundwater at Fukushima, says architect of Reactor No. 3 (VIDEO) by ENENEWS:

The architect of Unit 3 at Fukushima Daiichi — a former President of Saga University, so impeccable academic credentials — has said it is just a matter of time before the molten core at least in Unit 1, if not also Units 2 and 3, does reach groundwater.
And then if it just hits it right and if theres enough water and enough molten core you’re going to have a pretty powerful steam explosion
so yet more catastrophic radiaoctivity releases in a great big hurry.

2011-12-06 Evidence TEPCO Replaced Radiation Damaged Fukushima WebCam And Modified It to Prevent Visual Detections of Radiation From Neptunium 239, Uranium 239, and Yttrium 90, POTRBLOG Team.
"On the extreme early morning of December 3, Japan time, TEPCO's Fukushima webcam showed indications of Beta and Gamma radiation impacting its Charge Coupled Device (CCD). The nature of these impacts was to produced fast pixel sized blips of light on the TEPCO webcam. Less than 12 hours after this incident at "at 1:05pm on December 3", and likely as quickly as was possible, TEPCO replaced the webcam and added "transparent camera covers". These covers are thick enough to cause a horizontal line reflection back into the camera.
The POTRBLOG team believes that the "transparent camera covers" are in actuality Nalgene beta radiation shields designed to prevent visual evidence of high beta radiation activity in the area, and to prevent the ingress of Alpa particles into the camera's CCD.
The shielding would not prevent Gamma ray interaction, however Gamma ray interaction with the CCD is less likely and produces a weaker effect when it does occur. Nor would the shield prevent Neutron damage to the CCD. Neutron damage to the CCD would be evidenced by black pixels on the CCD. Given TEPCO's rapid change out of the camera, there would have only been limited daylight hours available to ascertain/record the presence of such damage.
It is unfortunate that TEPCO has apparently taken such actions, as these nighttime visible radiation induced blips serve as a public early warning indicator of the severity of immediate radioactive discharge situation in Fukushima.
For a detail explanation on how radiation affects CCDs please see this article
Finally at Hat-tip to Majia's Blog for making us aware of the video that showed the radiation blips. We have embedded that video below.
Note that in In the past, were we have data available, such steam events have correlated with Neptunium 239 detections. Neptunium 239 and its parent Uranium 239 both rapidly and strongly eject Beta radiation. Our conjecture is that both Np-239, U-239, and/or possibly Y-90 (given the recent Strontium spill) may have caused the pixel sized flashes seen on the video below."
2011-12-06 Massive Flare at Fukushima!!!!,
"I started watching at 12:06 23:32 on the web cam.
The flare of light is the size (on the cam) of the buildings and its tail streams stories up into the air.
Nuckelchen recorded the flare for us to see and posted it at Enenews
This is very bad.
On another note relating to radiation, a number of people have suggested that the high readings we had in Phoenix last week of 850 CPM were from our local nuclear power plant, Palo Verde.
Although that is possible, I am skeptical because the radiation peak we had echoed in Denver Colorado, Mason City Iowa, Idaho Falls, St Paul Minnesota, Bismark ND, etc. within a day or two
I cringe to consider what the radiation levels are going to be like coming over from the latest plant "anomaly"
Breaking News: 30.8 Bq/Kg from baby formula by Mochizuki
2011-12-06 50 of 87 Green Turtle's Eggs Were Deformed, by Mochizuki,
2011-12-06 Fukushima 45 tonne radioactive leak 'reaches ocean', RT
"Experts warn Japan faces more danger from radioactive particles in consumer food, after reports of a new toxic water leak from the Fukushima nuclear plant.
­Some 45 tons of radioactive toxic water has reportedly leaked out of the shattered plant and may have found its way into the ocean during the weekend, according to David Wagner from Country Risk Solutions in Tokyo.
The nuclear station’s reactor hot zones melted down after a 11 March quake, and the tsunami which followed devastated the site altogether.
Wagner found the new leak is small compared to previous leaks: 80 per cent of all the radiation contamination occurred back in March...
...Dr. Robert Jacobs, an associate research professor at Hiroshima Peace Institute, says plans for a cold shutdown are nothing but “a publicity mode."

"A cold shutdown is when a normally-operating reactor is brought off-line and the heat is reduced. We don’t have nuclear rods inside a nuclear reactor core. What we have is corium – nuclear fuel which has melted and is now pooled at the bottom of the reactor. So it is not really possible to call it a shut down in a controllable manner,” Dr. Jacobs told RT.
“What they can do is try to bring the temperature down to a level where it will no longer form a threat of melting through the containment of the reactor. This is far from a cold shutdown. The fuel will remain hot for quite a long time and they will need to put effort into containing it within the containment structure. It can take decades to bring it to a point when it is no longer a threat to the eco-system,” he added.

2011-12-07 (for this date) West Coast USA Be Prepared: An Emergency Happened In Fukushima on 12/7/11, published Dec 9, 2011
Some sort of Emergency occurred in Fukushima on 12/7/11. The next day, on 12/8/11, TEPCO announced that the emergency was just training. We find it strange that TEPCO did not announce the NIGHT TIME emergency training BEFORE IT OCCURRED.
Moreover, one has to question the wisdom of believing a company would have their already limited workforce stumbling around at NIGHT in the midst of at least THREE NUCLEAR MELTDOWNS for TRAINING.
If you live on the west coast of the USA you have at minimum one day to prepare if that 'night time emergency security measures training" involved the airborne release of something other than training mist.
If you have a Geiger counter, now and for the next several days would be a good time for some intensive monitoring.
Here is a link to TEPCO's PDF after the fact press release on the Emergency Security Measures “Nighttime Training” Conducted on Dec. 7
2011-12-08 Gundersen: If in Oregon, Wash., Calif. you need to demand officials test how Fukushima fallout has affected rivers and fish -- Significant radiation hit west coast and settled in on Cascades (VIDEO),, Dec 8, 2011
2011-12-09 Fukushima's Ongoing Radiation Releases,
Fukushima Diary posted a tweet from a worker who stated that releases today are 60 million Bq/h
In comparison, in August Busby stated that plant emissions were reported to the Japanese Prime Minister by Tepco to be 10 to the 13 becquerels per hour.
Dr. Christopher Busby interviewed by Russia Today (RT) and uploaded to YouTube “Christopher Busby: Chernobyl-like radiation found in Tokyo,” [RussiaToday] YouTube (uploaded 2011, August 17):
During a Sep. interview with Dr. Helen Caldicott, Arnie Gunderson stated that he had been told that Fukushima was currently emitting a gigabecquerel per day (gigabecquerel or GBq 10^9 Bq), in radiation, which he described as over 2 billion decays per second a day.
Helen Caldicott interviews Arnie Gunderson: “Arnold Gundersen with a Fukushima update,” If You Love This Planet (2011, September):
2011-12-10 Today's News from Japan: Leaking Plants and Radioactive Building Materials,

Mainichi: Long and tough road ahead for work to decommission Fukushima nuclear reactors
[Excerpted] "It is expected to take more than 30 years to decommission crippled reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, and workers tasked with the difficult mission would have to venture into "uncharted territory" filled with hundreds of metric tons of highly radioactive nuclear fuel, experts say….
….The key part of the decommissioning work is to remove a total of 1,496 fuel rods from the No. 1 to 3 nuclear reactors and 3,108 fuel rods from nuclear fuel pools of the No. 1 to 4 reactors. The government and TEPCO are expected to start decommissioning the reactors early in the New Year after unveiling detailed plans around Dec. 16 that the nuclear plant has been brought under control by achieving a stable state called a ''cold shutdown.
According to experts, filling the containment vessels with water completely to shield radiation is the "foremost and biggest hurdle." In order to carry out the task, it is necessary to spot and repair damaged parts in the containment vessels. But it is not an easy task. Up to about 5,000 millisieverts per hour of radiation -- lethal levels -- have been detected in the reactor building of the No. 1 reactor…''

2011-12-10 Mainichi: Average weight of Japanese girls declines for 1st time, [h/t majiasblog
[Excerpted] TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The average weight of girls in Japan declined in all age groups from 5 to 17 in the 2011 school year from the previous year for the first time since the government began conducting..."


2011-12-06 The Death Of The Pacific Ocean Fukushima Debris Soon To Hit American Shores by Yoichi Shimatsu,
2011-12-08 NHK: TEPCO plans to release radioactive water into sea, [Editor's Note: a continued hat tip to Dr. Majia Nadesan, who continues to do brilliant work in our time of grave national -- and global -- emergency].
[Excerpted] "The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant says it is considering releasing low-level radioactive water into the nearby sea. The Japanese fishery industry strongly opposes the plan.
"Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, says that it is currently decontaminating radioactive water amassed in the basement of the reactor buildings at Fukushima Daiichi and then recycling it as coolant for the reactors. The surplus water is being stored in tanks at the site of the plant.
"TEPCO says that the tanks, which have a capacity of 160-thousand tons of water, will be full up by March next year, because, in a separate development, groundwater of a maximum 500 tons per day is pouring into the basement of the buildings...
...In April, TEPCO was criticized by the domestic fishery industry and foreign countries for releasing about 10,000 tons of low-level radioactive water from the Fukushima plant into the sea...."
MAJIA HERE: Tepco has been releasing radioactive water into the sea during the entirety of this disaster. Here are some relevant headlines
First, Fukushima Diary is covering this story also "Tepco is planning to discharge contaminated water again"
More importantly, Fukushima Diary reported a few days ago that "Actual Fukushima worker talks: water purifying system has never worked"
Fukushima’s nuclear pollution of Pacific the world’s greatest: nuclear monitor, The Vancouver Sun, Agence France-Presse October 27, 2011 The IRSN cites deep-water fish, fish at the top of the marine food chain and molluscs and other filtrating organisms as “the species that are the most sensitive” to caesium pollution.
In May, Harvey Wasserman reported that Fukushima could be an unmitigated disaster for the oceans: Is Fukushima Now Ten Chernobyls Into the Sea? Tue May 24, 2011 at 08:31 PM
On May 26, Greenpeace criticized Japan’s inadequate radiation monitoring of “serious marine contamination”
China Detects Radiation In Ocean at 10 to 300 Times Normal Levels From Fukushima Nuclear Accident Sun Jul 31, 2011 at 03:23 PM
Fukushima Diary reports on the growing contamination of sea life here:
Fukushima: Towards the Formation of a Radioactive Graveyard in the Pacific Ocean? Japanese Officials & Experts Late Decision to Expand Testing Around Fukushima Daiichi by Lucas Whitefield Hixson
Asahi: "Cesium levels hit tens of billions of becquerels at river mouth""Researchers have sounded the alarm over river water containing cesium levels at tens of billions of becquerels a day flowing into the sea near Fukushima Prefecture, site of the crippled nuclear power plant."

North America

2011-12-04 JET STREAM FALLOUT CHANGE 12.4.-12.8.2011 (video)
2011-12-06 (for before this date) Fallout,, 21 December 2011
Arnie observes that research with Marco Kaltofen has found 100 becquerels (i.e., disintegrations per second) from Cesium-134 and 137 in a square meter in the Portland Oregon area. This research was conducted before November 6 when the results were discussed in an interview.
Next hottest area detected in the US was the Cascades and areas on the west side of Rockies.
In the early days of the disaster,10 hot particles a day inhaled in Seattle, 100X more in Japan.
Gunderson cites other research findings to support his claims about deposition in the US.
He cites a Univ of Texs study that found airborne radioactive aerosols 40,000 higher in April than normal (Xenon) [Elevated radioxenon detected remotely following the Fukushima nuclear accident. ]
Gunderson noted that UC San Diego detected radioactive sodium at levels implicating much higher releases of radiation than reported by Tepco [Evidence of neutron leakage at the Fukushima nuclear plant from measurements of radioactive 35S in California ]
Keep in mind that inhaling noble gasses is not risk free: see "Xenon Gas and Lethal Doses by Inhalation"
The data Gunderson discusses in this recent interview were presented in a November 6 Interview - with Marco Kaltofen - titled "Airborne Radiation Spread" 0r
EPA radnet data have shown a marked increase in radiation levels in many US cities since November. Many people who are monitoring levels with their personal geiger counters have detected high levels in the US and Canada as well.
Events evident on the Fukushima Webcams indicate that significant releases are occurring at the plant, especially in the vicinity of unit 3.
Speculation about the nature of observed anomalies at the plant can be found here
Recent detection of Iodine-131 supports the hypothesis that fission is still occurring and RADIATION CONTAMINATION IS WORSENING. Certainly no-one believes that cold shutdown has actually occurred...
When will our governments (Japan, U.S., Canadian) increase fallout testing and publicize results??? When will efforts be undertaken systematically to protect populaces by monitoring ALL FOOD and WATER?
2011-12-09 Phoenix Was High at 500 CPM Again,
"Early this week Phoenix AZ was up to 500 CPM beta again (30 to 60 is normal and the EPA cautions emergency responders to take precautions at 300 CPM)
I thought levels were high because I had the terrible tightness in my chest again.
But when I looked at radnet for Phoenix the levels were not so high.
Later in the week the EPA updated its Phoenix chart and the chart showed that early this week levels were back up to 500 CPM.
Why did they take 3 days to update their chart?
Then I viewed ichicax4's video and saw her trace the body of air that brought the radiation into Phoenix and other locations on the west part of the US. I recommend watching her short video:
Reno Rad Magnet 12.09.2011

My husband says I am our family's radiation detector. My asthma makes me a good barometer of levels that affect health subtly.
I was trained in the scientific method rather thoroughly. There is a very definite correlation between our radiation levels in Phoenix and my chest tightening.
Capt. Clyd H. Stagner, who is expert in radiation monitoring, has informed me that ionizing radiation causes can cause asthmatic symptoms.
2011-12-06 Distorting Lens,
"We who follow the Fukushima mega-disaster are forced to witness those events that unfold visibly through a distorting lens that generates more uncertainties than answers.
The Fukushima webcam is a deliberate travesty designed to distort and mislead, while superficially placating those who call for transparency.
Please see Potrblog's latest post on precisely this point
The same can be said for the EPA’s radnet, which is also a travesty of transparency as it has been very overtly compromised by censorship and data manipulation. Look for yourself and see the censorship and manipulation.

We who follow the Fukushima mega-disaster are a diverse group representing people from many countries. What unites us is our understanding that this disaster is without doubt the largest human-made catastrophe ever recorded.
Yet, we are without leadership as the officials of our so-called democracies lie and censor data pertaining to the state of the plant and the extent of ongoing radiation releases.
What understandings we do have are gleaned from sifting through multiple and frequently contradictory press releases and discussing nuances in long discussion forums.
The occasional remarks from experts, such as the recent warning of a possible hydrovolcanic explosion made by the architect of reactor 3, reinforce our sense that there is no plan, no cooperation, and no willingness to make economic sacrifices to protect the people of Japan, the people of Earth.
The world’s soulless and corrupted nuclear industry may know the extent of peril, but they are not sharing that information.
There is always a path forward aimed at securing life, even in the most dire of circumstances.
Unfortunately, it is increasingly apparent that self-serving interests have no sense of collective responsibility. The avarice of our corporations and our elite will be humanity’s undoing.
And so we who follow Fukushima scan webcams, radiation readings, and headlines. We make inferences and deductions. Sometimes our guesses are corroborated by data and sometimes our extrapolations are invalidated.
The limits of our understanding stem not from our shortcomings, but rather are by design; they are strategically engineered by those who allow us only to peer through a distorting lens.
Some links for those who follow (sincere apologies for any site I've missed--please post in comments and I'll update):

On radiation

2011-12-10 Congressman releases blockbuster report detailing NRC conspiracy in wake of Fukushima by ENENEWS admin.
New Report Details Conspiracy to Delay, Weaken US Nuclear Safety in Wake of Fukushima, Congressman Edward Markey, Dec. 9, 2011
“Regulatory Meltdown” Reveals Efforts to Improve Nuclear Safety Undermined by Four NRC Commissioners
WASHINGTON, D.C. – As part of his ongoing investigation into U.S. nuclear safety since the Fukushima meltdowns, today Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), Congress’s leading voice for nuclear safety, released a blockbuster new report that details how four Commissioners at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) colluded to prevent and then delay the work of the NRC Near-Term Task Force on Fukushima, the entity tasked with making recommendations for improvement to NRC regulations and processes after the Fukushima meltdowns, the worst nuclear disaster in history. The Near-Term Task Force members comprise more than 135 years of collective experience at the NRC, and with full access to expert NRC staff completed a methodical and comprehensive review of NRC’s regulatory system.
Rep. Markey’s office reviewed thousands of pages of documents, including emails, correspondence, meeting minutes and voting records, and found a concerted effort by Commissioners William Magwood, Kristine Svinicki, William Ostendorff and George Apostolakis to undermine the efforts of the Fukushima Task Force with request for endless additional study in an effort to delay the release and implementation of the task force’s final recommendations. Documents also show open hostility on the part of the four Commissioners toward efforts of NRC Chairman Greg Jaczko to fully and quickly implement the recommendations of the Task Force, despite efforts on the part of the Chairman to keep the other four NRC Commissioners fully informed regarding the Japanese emergency.
“The actions of these four Commissioners since the Fukushima nuclear disaster has caused a regulatory meltdown that has left America’s nuclear fleet and the general public at risk,” said Rep. Markey. “Instead of doing what they have been sworn to do, these four Commissioners have attempted a coup on the Chairman and have abdicated their responsibility to the American public to assure the safety of America’s nuclear industry. I call on these four Commissioners to stop the obstruction, do their jobs and quickly move to fully implement the lessons learned from the Fukushima disaster.”
Major findings in the new report include:

* Four NRC Commissioners attempted to delay and otherwise impede the creation of the NRC Near-Term Task Force on Fukushima;
* Four NRC Commissioners conspired, with each other and with senior NRC staff, to delay the release of and alter the NRC Near-Term Task Force report on Fukushima;
* The other NRC Commissioners attempted to slow down or otherwise impede the adoption of the safety recommendations made by the NRC Near-Term Task Force on Fukushima;
* NRC Chairman Greg Jaczko kept the other four NRC Commissioners fully informed regarding the Japanese emergency, despite claims to the contrary made by these Commissioners; and
* The consideration of the Fukushima safety upgrades is not the only safety-related issue that the other NRC Commissioners have opposed.

A copy of the report “Regulatory Meltdown: How Four Nuclear Regulatory Commissioners Conspired to Delay and Weaken Nuclear Reactor Safety in the Wake of Fukushima” can be found HERE.


2011-12-05 European Iodine 131 IZOTOP Blame Game Does Not Explain Airborne Fission Products, by the POTRBLOG Team.
"The airborne detections of Cs-134, Ru-103, Co-60, and Ce-144 are NOT explained by the IZOTOP Iodine 131 release.
The IAEA has blamed the Institute of Isotopes Co., Ltd (IZOTOP) for the recent European Iodine 131 detections; IZOTOP claims that they could not have been the sole source for the Iodine 131.
The publicly available data tends to support IZOTOP's position. A report from the Hungarian National Atomic Energy Agency verifies that IZOTOP was producing Iodine 131 by adding a neutron to Tellurium. That process would not create the fission products detected, nor would it explain the presence of Cobalt-60.
The detections of Cs-134, Ru-103,and Ce-144 indicate a high temperature fission process. Since these are fission products, the presence of Iodine 131, Te-132, I-132, Cs-137 would also be expected in the airborne detections. The 39 day half life of Ru-103 and its AIRBORNE detection makes an APRIL 2011 direct Fukushima release source questionable. An ongoing Fukushima release would be plausible, but it would also be readily directionally attributable.
One would expect IZOTOP's manufacturing process to avoid the creation of these extra fission elements as they would be expensive to remove from the medical Iodine 131 they were creating (not to mention the disposal costs). Moreover, the additional detected fission elements are not volotiale at room temperature like Iodine 131. Those other radioactive materials would have had to come from a high temperature source in order to be volatilized and found airborne. There is much more going on with the European Iodine 131 detections than has been let on by the authorities; the reasons why one can only guess at.
The POTRBLOG SWAG [Editor's Note:slang for "Scientific Wild-Assed Guess"] has been that the cosmogenic spallation of high atomic weight Fukushima fallout is a possible source of such distributed fallout. Much like the European fallout detection, it would be very difficult to pinpoint a specific point-source location for such fallout. Unfortunately we lack the tools and budget to quantify the likelihood of such a cosmogenic spallation event; HOWEVER, we find it very interesting that early on during the event someone in authority did let slip to the British media that a cosmogenic event was responsible.

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The Cowpens Flag, one of many circular star patterns used by "American Whigs" (or "Patriots")