Fukushima Radiation and Fallout Projections

5 - 11 February 2012


From SFP of reactor 3 and reactor 5 are heated as well by Iori Mochizuki on,, 5 Feb 2012



From Tepco Handout: Reactor No. 2 hits highest temperature this year — RPV now at 72.2°C,, 7 Feb 2012



From Government Releases New Radiation Readings In Fukushima,, February 28, 2012

From Temperature inside reactor stops rising,, 9 Feb 2012. [Ed. Note: This diagram is probably misleading. There is strong evidence that corium from most if not all the melt-down reactors melted through all containment and into the ground in March 2011. Corium probably hit ground water and started generating steam by August 2011]






From Kyodo: Highest radioactivity levels detected in Aichi since March 14 — Greater Tokyo area also increased (CHARTS),, 8 Feb 2012.

North America






2012-02-05 SFP of reactor 3 and reactor 5 are heated as well by Iori Mochizuki on,
Following up this article ..Attention : Reactor 2 is still being heated
It’s not only reactor 2, which is being heated.
According to the plant parameter data of Tepco, the temperature of reactor 3 has been increasing since 1/30/2012.
Also, the temperature of reactor 5 has been going up since 2/4/2012.
So far, no explanation has been given from Tepco or Japanese government.
2012-02-06 Bloomberg: Tepco injects boric acid to prevent criticality at Reactor No. 2,
2012-02-06 Gizmodo: “Just when you thought it was over” — Temps soar 26.7°C in last few hours at Reactor No. 2 — Tepco admits they don’t have a clue about what’s going on,
2012-02-06 Tepco: Water injections may no longer be able to properly cool down melted nuclear fuel in Reactor No. 2 — Says criticality is not taking place (VIDEO),
2012-02-06 Steam/vapor rising from Fukushima reactor (VIDEO),
2012-02-06 Asahi: Tepco checking if “chain of nuclear fission has occurred again in melted fuel” at Reactor No. 2 after temperature rises sharply,
2012-02-06 Gundersen: I’m afraid gov’t will try its very best to hide numbers coming from Fukushima — No death rate data for areas near meltdown… Why is that? (VIDEO),
2012-02-06 Over 6 µSv/h detected at Kashiwa High School near Tokyo,
2012-02-07 Tepco Handout: Reactor No. 2 hits highest temperature this year — RPV now at 72.2°C,
2012-02-07 Japanese Independent Journalist: Reactor No. 2 temperature actually showing over 85°C, and a lot of smoke is coming up,
2012-02-07 Nuclear Industry Website: Recriticality test detects “very low traces” of fission products at Reactor No. 2 — Tepco then injected boric acid as a precaution against chain reactions,
2012-02-07 NHK: Unknown temperature rise at Reactor No. 2 troubling Tepco — Says it hasn’t gone down even after increasing volume of cooling water on Tuesday (VIDEO),
2012-02-07 Bloomberg: “Nuclear reaction threat” as temperature rises — Head of Japan nuke institute: “Nobody is sure about the location of melted fuel — A similar incident will probably occur again”,
2012-02-08 Kyodo: Highest radioactivity levels detected in Aichi since March 14 — Greater Tokyo area also increased (CHARTS),
2012-02-08 Kyodo: Highest radioactivity levels detected in Aichi since March 14 — Greater Tokyo area also increased (CHARTS),
2012-02-08 Yomiuri: Melted fuel might have “cracked due to some shock” or “dropped down and changed shape” at Reactor No. 2, leading to recent temperature spike -Tepco,
2012-02-08 U.S. University: Low-level radiation appears to have had immediate effects on bird populations in Fukushima Pref. — Areas surveyed are mostly still open to human occupation — Worse than expected — More pronounced than Chernobyl,
Title: Bird populations near Fukushima are more diminished than expected
Source: University of South Carolina Press Release, Date: Feb 8, 2012
"Low-level radiation in Fukushima Prefecture appears to have had immediate effects on bird populations, and to a greater degree than was expected from a related analysis of Chernobyl, an international team of scientists reported today in Environmental Pollution.
In July 2011, the researchers identified and counted birds at 300 locations in Fukushima Prefecture, ranging from 15 to 30 miles from the damaged nuclear complex. Largely still open to human occupation, these areas had external radiation levels from 0.5 to 35 microsieverts per hour.
Overall, the bird community as a whole was significantly diminished in the more contaminated areas..."
2012-02-08 Tokyo Professor: Every organism in Fukushima Prefecture is contaminated with radiation — 1,373,000 Bq/kg detected in worm feces 60 km from meltdowns,
2012-02-08 Japan Professor: 25 times more Fukushima fallout detected in Tokyo Bay mud than maximum level found in nearby lake after nuclear bomb explosions — Cesium flow in rivers won’t peak for another 1-2 years,
2012-02-09 Japan TV: Professor detects 104 microSv/h near where kids walk to school — “Absurd reality” where children are right next to high-level contamination (VIDEO),
2012-02-09 Temperature inside reactor stops rising, (h/t Yomiuri: Melted fuel might have “cracked due to some shock” or “dropped down and changed shape” at Reactor No. 2, leading to recent temperature spike -Tepco,, February 9, 2012) [Ed. Note: It is quite possible that most of the corium has already melted many feet underground and the talk about using various spraying and cooling techniques -- as if the corium were still inside the building-- may just be cosmetic. It may also be true that earthquake activity has exacerbated criticality within the corium].
The abnormal rise in temperature in a reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant has stopped, apparently because more water has been injected into the crippled reactor, according to Tokyo Electric Power Co.
[...] the cause of the increased temperature remained unclear. [...]
... Currently, cooling water is injected into the No. 2 reactor via two piping systems--the coolant water supply system that can deliver water to the vessel's base, and the reactor core water spray system that aims water directly at the reactor core....
The temperature in the pressure vessel's base began rising from 45 C around Jan. 26, when the water injection balance of the two systems was changed several times during pipe repair work.
According to TEPCO, the volume of water being injected was far less than usual. It is possible that the way water was injected into the reactor might have changed around the time of the pipe repairs, and that water did not reach some of the fuel.
TEPCO also speculated that the fuel, which had melted and then solidified, might have cracked due to some shock or dropped down and changed shape.
2010-02-10 Tepco prepares to film Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 — “You can vaguely discern the fuel rods” says worker,
2012-02-11 A Media Retrospective: Is the nuclear fuel in Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 damaged?,
Several news articles and nuclear expert have reported on what happened inside Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 at Fukushima Daiichi. Here’s a list of reports beginning in Mid-March:

* Spent Fuel Pool in reactor No. 4 damaged and leaking very fast: UK’s top scientific officer (VIDEO), March 17, 2011
* Evidence of “significant hole or crack” in SFP No. 4 given by key contractors who were at Fukushima: NRC, March 18, 2011
* Exposed: Radiation "streaming into atmosphere" after No.4 pool boiled dry in fire - UK Paper, March 18, 2011
* Kyodo: "Renewed nuclear chain reaction feared" at reactor No. 4, March 18, 2011
* US drone uncovers "cracks" in multiple containment pools on Friday, March 18, 2011
* Boiling Point: Reactor No. 4 spent fuel pool at 212 Fahrenheit, March 24, 2011
* First look: Camera goes inside destroyed reactor No. 4 at Fukushima Daiichi (VIDEO), April 1, 2011
* "Disturbing": Photo clearly shows no water in spent fuel pool -Nuclear expert (VIDEO), April 1, 2011
* Flames and black smoke near reactor No. 4 -- TEPCO not sure if fire extinguished completely (PHOTO), April 12, 2011
* TEPCO: Nuclear fuel rods in No. 4 spent fuel pool are "confirmed to be damaged" -- First time damage revealed at any pool, April 13, 2011
* Nuclear engineer: Enormous amount of plutonium at No. 4 spent fuel pool in danger of catching fire; Pool is cracked and leaking (VIDEO), April 13, 2011
* Japan TV: Temperature in spent fuel pool at No. 4 "much higher than the normal level" -- "May be boiling" (VIDEO), April 13, 2011
* Nuclear Expert: Iodine-131 in No. 4 pool suggests that "spent fuel has started its own chain reaction", April 15, 2011
* Temperature rising in No. 4 spent fuel pool despite increased water injections (VIDEO), April 25, 2011
* "New problem": TEPCO says No. 4 spent fuel pool may be leaking (VIDEO), April 26, 2011
* IAEA: 'Vapor' rising from reactors No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4, April 27, 2011
* TEPCO claims explosion at No. 4 spent fuel pool may have prevented rods from melting down, April 28, 2011
* "Unusual amount of smoke" billowing from Reactors No. 3 and 4 "nothing to be concerned about" says TEPCO, Japan gov't, May 11, 2011
* Smoke/steam pouring out of Reactor Units No. 2, 3, 4 (PHOTOS & VIDEOS), May 11, 2011
* Dawn at Fukushima: Enhanced image exposes smoke/steam billowing from reactor buildings No. 2, 3, 4 (PHOTOS), May 11, 2011
* Color-corrected image shows constant flow of smoke/steam from Reactor Units No. 2, 3, 4 (PHOTOS & VIDEOS), May 12, 2011
* TEPCO acknowledges 'vapor' is still being seen at Reactors No. 2, 3 and 4 spent fuel pools, May 22, 2011
* Siemens Report: Reactor No. 4 spent fuel pool cracked from earthquake (FAIREWINDS VIDEO), May 23, 2011
* Large burst of steam rising from Reactor No. 4 (VIDEO), June 2, 2011
* Enlarged 50-mile evacuation zone by US was because of spent fuel pools, not reactor meltdowns: NRC official, June 2, 2011
* Trouble at SFP No. 4: Water injections not enough to cool pool -- Workers find large hole in wall, June 11, 2011
* Spent fuel pool No. 4 water level drops to 1/3 capacity -- High levels of radiation released after 'equipment' in pool was exposed, June 20, 2011
* No. 4 spent fuel pool only 8 degrees below boiling point, June 23, 2011
* 220 Million Bq/liter of Cesium now in No. 2 Spent Fuel Pool -- SFP No. 1, 2, & 3 "clearly have significant spent fuel damage" (VIDEO), August 28, 2011
* U. of Tokyo analysis: Mystery explosion at Reactor No. 4 caused by radiation dissolving water in boiling spent fuel pool -- Contradicts TEPCO's assumption, September 15, 2011
* 100% release of Unit No. 4 Spent Fuel Pool assumed in NRC analysis -- 50% at Unit No. 3 pool, October 7, 2011
* Top scientists refute Japan gov't: "Copious quantities" of radioactivity leaked from Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 -- A "significant part" of overall cesium release, October 25, 2011
* Damaged Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 just had 204 "new" fuel rods inserted before quake + Scientists say another 9.0 megaquake may hit at year's end = "Fukushima is still on the edge", October 29, 2011
* Suspected damage to fuel assembly racks in Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 -- See anything missing? (VIDEO), November 21, 2011
* CNN: Spent fuel rods are "very damaged" -- Fires from heat at SFP No. 4 are believed to have damaged reactor building (VIDEO), December 16, 2011
* Dec 30: UM nuclear professor shows photo indicating "Damage to Rack?" and "Irradiated Fuel" in Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 (PHOTOS), December 31, 2011
* NRC March Email: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 was likely dry enough to lead to catastrophic explosion -- Structural damage to pool area known to exist -- Pool leakage likely, January 7, 2012

North America

2012-02-06 (for this day) Highest level of radioactive cesium in San Francisco-area milk since August 2011 — Now at 150% of EPA’s maximum contaminant limit (CHART),, Feb 7, 2012
Title: UCB Milk Sampling Results, Source: UCBDepartment of Nuclear Engineering
Date: Feb 6, 2012
2/6/2012 (2:31pm): A new milk sample has been measured, this one with a best-by date of 2/16/2012. The results are posted to the milk sample page. Low levels of both Cs-134 and Cs-137 were still detected in the sample.
Best Buy Date of 02/16/2012:
Cs-134 @ 0.052 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.115 Bq/L
0.167 Bq/L of radioactive cesium = 4.526 picocuries/L (1 Bq = 27.1 picocuries)
The EPA Maximum Contaminant Level for radioactive cesium in milk is 3 picocuries/L:
“EPA lumps these gamma and beta emitters together under one collective MCL [Maximum Contaminant Level], so if you’re seeing cesium-137 in your milk or water, the MCL is 3.0 picocuries per liter; if you’re seeing iodine-131, the MCL is 3.0; if you’re seeing cesium-137 and iodine-131, the MCL is still 3.0.”
These are the highest cesium levels detected by UCB since at least August 2011 (As the MDA was higher over the summer, it’s hard to be sure of the exact levels at that time) [See chart provided above]
2012-02-07 Saint Louis Snowfall Measuring 4X Greater Than Background Radiation by Potrblog
2012-02-07 [ALERT] Prepare For Increased Fukushima Fallout, STAY OUT OF THE RAIN! by Potrblog
Hat tip to Mauibrad, for the link to the video below [Editor's Note: link Here].
The POTRBLOG team previously predicted that winter Fukushima recriticalities would be easier to spot because the cold ground temperatures would make the ground water upwelling as radioactive steam more easily visible. In the same manner, we also predicted that these radioactive ground water steam upwellings would melt the snow surrounding them. With the predicted snow showers for the upcoming week and the on going recriticality, we should have our first strong potential for spotting this phenomena (assuming the cameras let us see it).
As unfortunate as these events are, they do provide us early warning that more Fukushima Fallout will be on the Jet Stream. We expect increased levels of readily detectable short half life radiation in rain swipes resulting from the high levels of Radon present in the ground water. These high short half life levels likely are strong predictors of high amounts of harder to detect man-made Fukushima fallout in those same rain swipes.
Suitable cost effective risk mitigation actions would be well advised...
2012-02-10 2/10/12 4:15pm Light Snow Radioactive At 20X Greater Than Background Radiation by Potrblog




2012-02-07 Xinhua: Radioactive Iodine-131 detected in Austria,

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The Cowpens Flag, one of many circular star patterns used by "American Whigs" (or "Patriots")