...Starting with first principles
America First Trust services
Education, analysis, and advice for uncertain times




Financialsense market monitor (includes indices, interest rates, commodities, valuation statistics)

Dow Ind.. 1 yr (stockcharts.com) ...........max (yahoo charts ^DJI, set on linear scale)
S&P 500..6 month (stockcharts.com)..... max (yahoo charts ^SPX, set on linear scale)
Nasdaq.... 6 month (stockcharts.com)..... max (yahoo charts ^IXIC set on linear scale)

I particularly like to use Yahoo charts for comparing stocks, mutual funds, and indices. Starting with the links above, you can reset the time periods and go from a linear to a logarithmic scale if you wish. Enter stocks and mutual funds against a market index and visually observe whether one sees outperformance, higher volatility (risk), and low correlation (one chart zigs while the other zags). Also, the yahoo max Dow chart shown above illustrates how the Dow might ultimately fall well below 5,000 if it reverts to the market trend line averages that existed before the commencement before the 1982-2000 bull market.

As an example regarding the use of Yahoo charts to compare stocks, mutual funds, and indices, please note the following sample five year chart with the following plotted on it:

Yahoo five year sample chart: Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) and the chip maker Applied Materials (AMAT), plotted against the PBRCX (Prudent Bear Fund C shares) and the NASDAQ and S&P index.

Please note between Sept 99 and August 2003, Applied Materials zigs and zags with NASDAQ and has outperformed it, but with more volatility suggesting that it may not be worth the additional risk. As a 60% short fund, PBRCX is negatively correlated with the NASDAQ and S&P (^SPX). SSRI has a slight but lower correlation with NASDAQ than Applied Materials, and has been negatively correlated in an up trend. Of course this commentary is provided for illustrative purposes only, is not an advocacy of any particular investment instrument, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Financialsense.com weekly summary charts.


Gold, silver,and precious metals at www.kitco.com.
Historical gold
Historical silver

Free graphical displays of foreign exchange rates around the world by Oanda.

Oil and Natural Gas Charts: www.ino.com (type oil or natural gas in search box)
Henry hub natural gas chart:


Financialsense.com intermarket charts. Weekly/Yearly charts for Dow Industrials, S&P 500 Index, Dow Transports, Dow Utilities, NASDAQ Composite, US Dollar Index, 10-Year Treasury, 30-Year Treasury, CRB Index, Gold Bugs Index, Gold Futures, Silver, West Texas Crude Oil, Natural Gas.

Gold-Eagle.com intermarket charts; Daily charts for 30 yr bond, US Dollar Index, CRB index, Crude Oil, and Gold.

Brief explanation of intermarket analysis. In classical economics, interest rates, the CRB (commodities) index, gold, and silver are positively correlated with a rise in inflation and each other, and are all inversely correlated with the stock market indices and the 30 yr. bond index (when the bond index goes up, interest rates go down, and this tends to help the stock market by allowing higher P/E multiples relative to bonds). Oil and natural gas prices tend to be inversely correlated with the stock market, to the extent that they can be inflationary, and hence can be positively correlated with precious metals and the CRB index. A breakdown in the Dow Utilities, US Dollar Index, and 30-Year Treasury can be a leading indicator of a major stock market correction (such as just before the 1987 crash). In the real world, there are lead-lag effects between these relationships, and furthermore government and Fed interventions can and often do distort these relationships for many years at a time. However, an awareness of classical relationships and current anomalies can help to provide clues for tectonic shifts likely to take place some time in the future.


PrudentBear.com Chart Library charts:

Business Sector Debt
Construction Spending
Consumer Credit
Financial Sector Debt
GSE Assets
Home Equity as % of Market Value
Home Mortgage Borrowing
Home Sales - Existing
Home Sales - Existing, from Dec '89
Home Sales - Existing - Average Price
Household balance sheet
Housing Starts
ISM Manufacturing Index
Money Supply
Mortgage Debt
Mortgage Purchase Application Index
Mortgage Refinancing Index
New Home Sales
Trade Deficit

Grandfather report charts, a must read, regarding long term trends involving government size, education quality, nation-wide debt-dependence, foreign-dependence and energy/national security - - each a potential threat to families and their children.

Federal Reserve Economic Database II; charts provided by Federal Reserve, to include money supply growth, industrial production, etc.






Flag carried by the 3rd Maryland Regiment at the Battle of Cowpens, S. Carolina, 1781

© Text and web design by William Fox.Sometimes William Fox offers viewpoints that are not necessarily his own to provide additional perspectives.